Training for Forecasting

The content of your new article is great.

This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself).

Calibration Exercises

 * OpenPhil's Calibrate Your Judgement
 * Julia Galef's Scout Mindset Calibration Quiz (Adapted from Julia Galef)
 * https://bayes-up.web.app/
 * http://acritch.com/credence-game/
 * http://confidence.success-equation.com/
 * http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
 * http://credencecalibration.com/
 * https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
 * https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
 * http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
 * http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
 * https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
 * https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
 * https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.the_calibration_game
 * https://outsidetheasylum.blog/probability-calibration/

(h/t this LessWrong Post)

Readings

 * [Superforeacsting]: The Art and Science of Prediction
 * [Expert Political Judgment]: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?