Training for Forecasting

This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself).

Calibration Exercises

 * OpenPhil's Calibrate Your Judgement
 * Julia Galef's Scout Mindset Calibration Quiz (Adapted from Julia Galef)
 * https://bayes-up.web.app/
 * http://acritch.com/credence-game/
 * http://confidence.success-equation.com/
 * http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
 * http://credencecalibration.com/
 * https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
 * https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
 * http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
 * http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
 * https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
 * https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
 * https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.the_calibration_game
 * https://outsidetheasylum.blog/probability-calibration/

(h/t this LessWrong Post)

Readings

 * Superforeacsting: The Art and Science of Prediction
 * Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
 * Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives