Right Side of Maybe

"Right Side of Maybe" is an expression for forecasts of greater than 50% certainty that do occur, or less than 50% certainty that do not occur. It implicitly forms the basis by which non-forecasters commonly judge the "accuracy" of forecasts (in contrast to forecasters, who will typically trust metrics like the brier score and assess whether a forecaster is well-calibrated, rather than whether they've generated a forecast that is incidentally correct).