Category:Making good forecasts

Articles that help you improve your forecasting.

From "Superforecasting" (Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters) (1) Triage. (2) Break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems. (3) Strike the right balance between inside and outside views. (4) Strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to evidence. (5) Look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem. (6) Strive to distinguish as many degrees of doubt as the problem permits but no more. (7) Strike the right balance between under- and overconfidence, between prudence and decisiveness. (8) Look for the errors behind your mistakes but beware of rearview-mirror hindsight biases. (9) Bring out the best in other and let others bring out the best in you. (10) Master the error-balancing cycle. (11) Don't treat commandments as commandments.