How to Start Forecasting

Picking a Community
There are several active. They all have advantages and disadvantages. Sign up for one!

Picking a Question
There are a variety of types of questions. The simplest is probably binary questions. They typically go like this:

Will the Cold War end before 2000?

There are two key components to note here. First is the resolution criterion. That is the thing that we're trying to forecast. In this case, the end of the Cold War. The other is the resolution date. That's the date by which we're predicting a the resolution criterion will happen (or not).

We need to have a resolution date because over very long timelines, most questions stop making sense. For example, if we predict on whether the Cold War will ever end, the answer is "almost certainly" and you should predict something very close to 100%. But this isn't particularly informative!

Take the Outside View
If you only ever do one thing to improve as a forecaster, do this.

Wait for Reality to Catch up
In the meanwhile, Pick another Question and repeat!