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Introduction to Forecasting
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== Two frames for forecasting: Self-Improvement vs Information Gathering == Forecasting as self improvement. You (or your organisation) make forecasts about the future. You keep a track record of your progress. Looking back, you spot the repeated kind of errors and work on making your future decision better. You become wary of making forecasts in future that you don't think will hold up. Your behaviour is better linked to reality and you become a more accurate source of information. Forecasting as information gathering. There is an issue you want to know about. You create a prediction aggregator or market. People make forecasts/bets. This provides early indicators on this issue. Both prediction markets aggregators have a great track record<sup></sup>. You learn what will happen earlier than you otherwise would.
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