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Introduction to Forecasting
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== Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Aggregators == [[Prediction markets]] involves betting on outcomes. Some users will be paid if they happen and others if they don't. The current price of the bets indicates a level of confidence in the outcome. Kalshi, polymarket etc. [[Prediction aggregators]] (like Metaculus and Good Judgement Open) gather forecasts and score how well individuals did according to various [https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Category:Forecast_evaluation scoring methods] which incentivise accuracy, regular forecasting or both.
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