Editing Introduction to Forecasting

Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.

The edit can be undone. Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then publish the changes below to finish undoing the edit.

Latest revision Your text
Line 12: Line 12:
 
* [https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Introduction_to_Forecasting Prediction market terminology] (by Kalshi).
 
* [https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Introduction_to_Forecasting Prediction market terminology] (by Kalshi).
   
== How do I forecast as an individual ==
 
* Join a community of forecasters
 
** Follow forecasters on twitter @nikosbosse @fianxu @peterwildeford
 
** Metaculus
 
** Good Judgement Open
 
**Discord servers of Metaculus and various prediction markets
 
* Do some forecasts and do [[Post-Mortem|post-mortems]] once they resolve.
 
βˆ’  
== How do I forecast as an org ==
 
βˆ’  
* If you have effective altruism questions talk to @nathanpmyoung or [blanka]
 
* If you have general questions, write them <sup>["how to write question on metaculus" page required]</sup>
 
* Set up prediction markets
 
* Cultivate Labs
 
 
== Two frames for forecasting: Self-Improvement vs Information Gathering ==
 
== Two frames for forecasting: Self-Improvement vs Information Gathering ==
 
Forecasting as self improvement. You (or your organisation) make forecasts about the future. You keep a track record of your progress. Looking back, you spot the repeated kind of errors and work on making your future decision better. You become wary of making forecasts in future that you don't think will hold up. Your behaviour is better linked to reality and you become a more accurate source of information.
 
Forecasting as self improvement. You (or your organisation) make forecasts about the future. You keep a track record of your progress. Looking back, you spot the repeated kind of errors and work on making your future decision better. You become wary of making forecasts in future that you don't think will hold up. Your behaviour is better linked to reality and you become a more accurate source of information.
Line 41: Line 27:
 
* Choosing your scoring method
 
* Choosing your scoring method
 
* Working out which questions are interesting
 
* Working out which questions are interesting
  +
 
== How do I forecast as an individual ==
  +
 
* Join a community of forecasters
 
** Follow forecasters on twitter @nikosbosse @fianxu @peterwildeford
 
** Metaculus
 
** Good Judgement Open
 
**Discord servers of Metaculus and various prediction markets
 
* Do some forecasts and do [[Post-Mortem|post-mortems]] once they resolve.
  +
 
== How do I forecast as an org ==
  +
 
* If you have effective altruism questions talk to @nathanpmyoung or [blanka]
 
* If you have general questions, write them <sup>["how to write question on metaculus" page required]</sup>
 
* Set up prediction markets
 
* Cultivate Labs
Please note that all contributions to Forecasting Wiki are considered to be released under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) (see Forecasting Wiki:Copyrights for details). If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly and redistributed at will, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource. Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel Editing help (opens in new window)