Introduction to Forecasting: Difference between revisions
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* When holding discussions, prediction markets and concretise them
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* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction Superforecasting]. ''The'' book to read on forecasting. It explains the research that led to forecasting becoming trusted as a decision making mechanism and some ways that we can improve as forecasters
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* Something on prediction markets <sup>[please someone add one]</sup>
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Forecasting as self improvement. You (or your organisation) make forecasts about the future. You keep a track record of your progress. Looking back, you spot the repeated kind of errors and work on making your future decision better. You become wary of making forecasts in future that you don't think will hold up. Your behaviour is better linked to reality and you become a more accurate source of information.
Forecasting as information gathering. There is an issue you want to know about. You create a prediction aggregator or market. People make forecasts/bets. This provides early indicators on this issue. Both prediction markets aggregators have a great track record<sup>[citation needed]</sup>. You learn what will happen earlier than you otherwise would.
== Prediction
[[Prediction markets]] involves betting on outcomes. Some users will be paid if they happen and others if they don't. The current price of the bets indicates a level of confidence in the outcome. Kalshi, polymarket etc.
Prediction aggregators (like Metaculus and Good Judgement Open) gather forecasts and score how well individuals did according to various [https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Category:Forecast_evaluation scoring methods] which incentivise accuracy, regular forecasting or both
== Hard problems within forecasting ==
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