Introduction to Forecasting: Difference between revisions

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* [https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Introduction_to_Forecasting Prediction market terminology] (by Kalshi).
* [https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Introduction_to_Forecasting Prediction market terminology] (by Kalshi).


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== How do I forecast as an individual ==
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* Join a community of forecasters
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** Follow forecasters on twitter @nikosbosse @fianxu @peterwildeford
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** Metaculus
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** Good Judgement Open
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**Discord servers of Metaculus and various prediction markets
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* Do some forecasts and do [[Post-Mortem|post-mortems]] once they resolve.

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== How do I forecast as an org ==

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* If you have effective altruism questions talk to @nathanpmyoung or [blanka]
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* If you have general questions, write them <sup>["how to write question on metaculus" page required]</sup>
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* Set up prediction markets
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* Cultivate Labs
== Two frames for forecasting: Self-Improvement vs Information Gathering ==
== Two frames for forecasting: Self-Improvement vs Information Gathering ==
Forecasting as self improvement. You (or your organisation) make forecasts about the future. You keep a track record of your progress. Looking back, you spot the repeated kind of errors and work on making your future decision better. You become wary of making forecasts in future that you don't think will hold up. Your behaviour is better linked to reality and you become a more accurate source of information.
Forecasting as self improvement. You (or your organisation) make forecasts about the future. You keep a track record of your progress. Looking back, you spot the repeated kind of errors and work on making your future decision better. You become wary of making forecasts in future that you don't think will hold up. Your behaviour is better linked to reality and you become a more accurate source of information.
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* Choosing your scoring method
* Choosing your scoring method
* Working out which questions are interesting
* Working out which questions are interesting

⚫
== How do I forecast as an individual ==

⚫
* Join a community of forecasters
⚫
** Follow forecasters on twitter @nikosbosse @fianxu @peterwildeford
⚫
** Metaculus
⚫
** Good Judgement Open
⚫
**Discord servers of Metaculus and various prediction markets
⚫
* Do some forecasts and do [[Post-Mortem|post-mortems]] once they resolve.

⚫
== How do I forecast as an org ==

⚫
* If you have effective altruism questions talk to @nathanpmyoung or [blanka]
⚫
* If you have general questions, write them <sup>["how to write question on metaculus" page required]</sup>
⚫
* Set up prediction markets
⚫
* Cultivate Labs
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