User contributions for Chidethetrain

19:0119:01, 1 July 2022 diff hist +2,911‎ N Updating forecasts ‎ initial commit current

09:1109:11, 20 April 2022 diff hist +302‎ m Proper scoring rule ‎ added examples and definition of a strictly proper scoring rule Tag: Visual edit
09:0509:05, 20 April 2022 diff hist +28‎ m Log score ‎ all scoring rules for binary questions are local, but there clearly are other strictly proper scoring rules: e.g. quadratic. Tag: Visual edit

20:4220:42, 19 April 2022 diff hist +111‎ m Log score ‎ Corrected the (wrong) claim that the log score is the only local scoring rule by noting it is the only strictly proper local scoring rule. Tag: Visual edit
18:3018:30, 19 April 2022 diff hist −1‎ m Log score ‎ fixed the sign of -log(0.3) which is approximately 1.20, not -1.20 (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=-log%280.3%29) Tag: Visual edit

13:4913:49, 14 April 2022 diff hist +2,407‎ N Polling ‎ wrote about ideal assumptions you may look for in a poll and cited some estimates on accuracy Tag: Visual edit

14:3414:34, 13 April 2022 diff hist +4‎ m Introduction to Forecasting ‎ added link to prediction aggregators article (does not exist yet) Tag: Visual edit
14:3114:31, 13 April 2022 diff hist +1,314‎ Prediction markets ‎ Added comparisons to prediction aggregators like Metaculus and added more examples of prediction markets. Tag: Visual edit
13:2513:25, 13 April 2022 diff hist +46‎ m List with training resources and exercises ‎ added 80000hours.org calibration training page Tag: Visual edit
12:1012:10, 13 April 2022 diff hist +14‎ m Post-Mortem ‎ added a heading Tag: Visual edit
12:0412:04, 13 April 2022 diff hist +1,278‎ N Post-Mortem ‎ created the page with an admittedly hyperbolic example
11:3311:33, 13 April 2022 diff hist +162‎ Introduction to Forecasting ‎ Added Kalshi's introduction to prediction market terminology, etc. and linked to the newly created post-mortems page. Tag: Visual edit