Predicting at Near-Certainty: Difference between revisions

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 == Absolute Predictions in Forecasting Tournaments ==
-Practical Forecasting can afford to be a little more forgiving. All forecasts are stored imprecisely in one way or another. If a forecasting platform provides 0% and 100% as valid inputs, it's probably best to think of them as rounding your probability to the nearest whole percentage. In other words, you aren't claiming that there's no evidence that would convince you otherwise (contra above), but that your confidence is within half a percent of absolute. It isn't hard to envision forecasts for which this should be true (e.g. will the sun rise tomorrow?).
+Practical Forecasting can afford to be a little more forgiving. All forecasts are stored imprecisely in one way or another. If a forecasting platform restricts you to whole number inputs between 0% and 100% inclusive (as, for example, [[Good Judgement Open]] does), it's probably best to think of them as rounding your probability to the nearest whole percentage. In other words, you aren't claiming that there's no evidence that would convince you otherwise (contra above), but that your confidence is within half a percent of absolute. It isn't hard to envision forecasts for which this should be true (e.g. will the sun rise tomorrow?).
 == References ==