User contributions for AABoyles

9 August 2022

• 15:5415:54, 9 August 2022 diff hist +35‎ m How to Start Forecasting ‎ →‎Picking a Question current Tag: Visual edit

16 June 2022

• 19:2819:28, 16 June 2022 diff hist +112‎ N Telling the Future ‎ Created page with "{{Forecasting Media Source |title=Telling the Future |format=Blog |url=https://tellingthefuture.substack.com/ }}" current
• 17:1817:18, 16 June 2022 diff hist +399‎ N Forecasting Newsletter ‎ Created page with "{{Forecasting Media Source |title=Forecasting Newsletter |format=Substack Blog |url=https://forecasting.substack.com/ }} The Forecasting Newsletter is a monthly newsletter by Nuño Sempere covering topics in forecasting. It also covers broader topics in forecasting, such as those in machine learning, weather forecasting, various crypto prediction platforms, presidential election forecasting, etc." current
• 17:1317:13, 16 June 2022 diff hist +769‎ N NonProphets ‎ Created page with "{{Forecasting Media Source |title=NonProphets |format=Podcast |url=https://blubrry.com/nonprophets/ }} This is a podcast featuring Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman, all of whom were chosen as superforecasters in the Good Judgment Project based on their performance in the tournament. The guys have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc., the commercial forecasting firm spawned by the study. In the podcast, they discuss t..." current
• 17:0917:09, 16 June 2022 diff hist +42‎ N Category:Forecasting Media Source ‎No edit summary current
• 17:0917:09, 16 June 2022 diff hist +709‎ N Special:Badtitle/NS106:Forecasting Media Source ‎No edit summary current
• 17:0917:09, 16 June 2022 diff hist +207‎ N Template:Forecasting Media Source ‎No edit summary current

10 June 2022

• 19:2119:21, 10 June 2022 diff hist +239‎ Category:Forecasting Tool ‎No edit summary current
• 18:5618:56, 10 June 2022 diff hist +429‎ N Guesstimate ‎ Created page with "{{Forecasting Tool |name=Guesstimate |url=https://www.getguesstimate.com/ }} Guesstimate is a spreadsheet tool that helps you model and forecast uncertain quantities. Guesstimate's interface is similar to other spreadsheet tools, such as Excel or Google Sheets. Each model is a grid of cells, and each cell can be filled with a name and value. Functions can be used to connect cells together to represent more complex quantities." current
• 18:5118:51, 10 June 2022 diff hist +72‎ Category:Forecasting Tool ‎No edit summary
• 18:4318:43, 10 June 2022 diff hist +29‎ N Category:Data Source ‎No edit summary current
• 18:4318:43, 10 June 2022 diff hist +782‎ N Special:Badtitle/NS106:Data Source ‎No edit summary current
• 18:4218:42, 10 June 2022 diff hist +280‎ N Template:Data Source ‎No edit summary current
• 18:3918:39, 10 June 2022 diff hist +227‎ Category:Forecasting Tool ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 18:3718:37, 10 June 2022 diff hist +215‎ N Talk:Writing good questions/markets ‎ →‎Deletion (par deux): new section Tag: New topic
• 18:3518:35, 10 June 2022 diff hist +34‎ N Category:Forecasting Tool ‎No edit summary
• 18:3518:35, 10 June 2022 diff hist +640‎ N Special:Badtitle/NS106:Forecasting Tool ‎No edit summary current
• 18:3418:34, 10 June 2022 diff hist +175‎ N Template:Forecasting Tool ‎No edit summary current
• 18:3018:30, 10 June 2022 diff hist +376‎ N AI Forecasting Dictionary ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|help wanted}}<!--- Change 'Help wanted' to 'WIP' if you don't want others to edit, then 'Review wanted' when you want feedback and approval, remove banner when review is passed.---> [https://parallel-forecast.github.io/AI-dict/ The AI Forecasting Dictionary] is a set of standards and conventions for precisely interpreting AI and auxiliary terms. Category:Stub" current
• 18:2818:28, 10 June 2022 diff hist −43‎ How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 18:2718:27, 10 June 2022 diff hist +116‎ How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 18:1018:10, 10 June 2022 diff hist +190‎ Proper scoring rule ‎No edit summary

12 May 2022

• 13:5913:59, 12 May 2022 diff hist +237‎ How to Start Forecasting ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 13:5913:59, 12 May 2022 diff hist +263‎ N Citation needed ‎ Created page with "You've found a claim that should be backed by empirical evidence or other formal research. If you're familiar with the research on this topic, please go back and replace the [''citation needed''] tag with a relevant reference! <comments /> Category:Meta" current
• 13:5413:54, 12 May 2022 diff hist +36‎ N Template:Citation needed ‎ Created page with "^{[''citation needed'']}" current

9 May 2022

• 20:1120:11, 9 May 2022 diff hist −2‎ Manifold Markets ‎No edit summary current
• 20:1020:10, 9 May 2022 diff hist +1‎ Kalshi ‎No edit summary
• 20:1020:10, 9 May 2022 diff hist −110‎ Kalshi ‎No edit summary
• 20:0920:09, 9 May 2022 diff hist −122‎ Iowa Electronic Markets ‎No edit summary
• 20:0720:07, 9 May 2022 diff hist +82‎ N Category:Prediction markets ‎ Created page with "{{#default_form:Add a new Prediction Platform}} Category:Prediction platforms" current
• 20:0520:05, 9 May 2022 diff hist −104‎ List with prediction platforms ‎ Redirected page to Category:Prediction platforms current Tags: New redirect Visual edit: Switched
• 20:0420:04, 9 May 2022 diff hist −226‎ List with training resources and exercises ‎ Redirected page to Training for Forecasting current Tag: New redirect
• 19:5719:57, 9 May 2022 diff hist +4‎ Calibration ‎No edit summary
• 19:5719:57, 9 May 2022 diff hist +331‎ Calibration ‎No edit summary
• 19:5119:51, 9 May 2022 diff hist +1,105‎ N Calibration ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> Calibration refers to the propensity of a forecaster's forecasts to occur at the approximate frequency of their prediction. For example, a forecaster who forecasts 10 events at 40% each and 4 of those events ultimately occur exhibits good calibration. If 3 or 5 of these events occur, the forecaster may still be exhibiting reasonable calibr..."
• 19:4819:48, 9 May 2022 diff hist +113‎ N File:Metaculus Calibration Plot.png ‎No edit summary current
• 19:2819:28, 9 May 2022 diff hist +696‎ N Right Side of Maybe ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> "Right Side of Maybe" is an expression for forecasts of greater than 50% certainty that do occur, or less than 50% certainty that do not occur. It implicitly forms the basis by which non-forecasters commonly judge the "accuracy" of forecasts (in contrast to forecasters, who will typically trust metrics like the brier score and assess w..." current
• 19:2119:21, 9 May 2022 diff hist +71‎ m Get involved ‎ →‎Creating an article Tag: Visual edit
• 19:1819:18, 9 May 2022 diff hist +340‎ m Get involved ‎ →‎How do I become a contributor? Tag: Visual edit
• 19:0319:03, 9 May 2022 diff hist −1‎ Template:Welcome ‎No edit summary current
• 19:0219:02, 9 May 2022 diff hist +177‎ N Template:Welcome ‎ Created page with "Hiya! Thanks for joining the Forecasting Wiki. If you haven't already, please check out the Get Involved and To dos pages. Otherwise, please plunge in and start writing!"
• 18:0318:03, 9 May 2022 diff hist +402‎ Keynesian Beauty Contest ‎No edit summary current
• 15:2115:21, 9 May 2022 diff hist −41‎ Template:Metaculus Embed ‎No edit summary current
• 15:1415:14, 9 May 2022 diff hist +106‎ N Template:Metaculus Embed ‎ Created page with "<iframe src=""https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/{{{id}}}/"" width=""550"" height=""260""></iframe>"
• 15:1015:10, 9 May 2022 diff hist +4,250‎ N Keynesian Beauty Contest ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> A '''Keynesian beauty contest''' is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes and introduced in Chapter 12 of his work, ''The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'' (1936), to explain price fluctuations in stock markets. It describes a beauty contest where judges are rewarded for selecting the ''most popular'' faces am..." Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 13:5513:55, 9 May 2022 diff hist +48‎ Reciprocal Scoring ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit
• 13:5313:53, 9 May 2022 diff hist +524‎ Training for Forecasting ‎ →‎Readings Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 13:4313:43, 9 May 2022 diff hist +8‎ How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎ →‎External Links Tag: Visual edit

6 May 2022

• 17:4917:49, 6 May 2022 diff hist +182‎ How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎ →‎External Links Tag: Visual edit
• 17:4717:47, 6 May 2022 diff hist +1,831‎ N Training for Forecasting ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> The content of your new article<ref>Reference here</ref> is great. This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself). == Cognitive Bias Reduction == == Calibration Exercises == * OpenPhil's [https://www.openphilanthropy.org/calibration..."