Training for Forecasting
| This article is work in progess. The author is working on it and it is not yet ready for review. |
The content of your new article[1] is great.
This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself).
Cognitive Bias Reduction
Calibration Exercises
- OpenPhil's Calibrate Your Judgement
- Julia Galef's Scout Mindset Calibration Quiz (Adapted from Julia Galef)
- https://bayes-up.web.app/
- http://acritch.com/credence-game/
- http://confidence.success-equation.com/
- http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
- http://credencecalibration.com/
- https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
- https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
- http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
- http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
- https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
- https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
- https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.the_calibration_game
- https://outsidetheasylum.blog/probability-calibration/
(h/t this LessWrong Post)
Readings
- [Superforeacsting]: The Art and Science of Prediction
- [Expert Political Judgment]: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
External Links
References
- ↑ Reference here
<comments />