Right Side of Maybe

From Forecasting Wiki
This article is work in progess. The author is working on it and it is not yet ready for review.

"Right Side of Maybe" is an expression for forecasts of greater than 50% certainty that do occur, or less than 50% certainty that do not occur. It implicitly forms the basis by which non-forecasters commonly judge the "accuracy" of forecasts (in contrast to forecasters, who will typically trust metrics like the brier score and assess whether a forecaster is well-calibrated, rather than whether they've generated a forecast that is incidentally correct).


<comments />