User contributions for AABoyles
6 May 2022
- 17:1817:18, 6 May 2022 diff hist +499 N How to Write Forecasting Questions Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> Writing good forecasting questions is tricky. == References == <references /> == External Links == * Metaculus: [https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/ Question writing and submission guidelines] * Foretold: [https://docs.foretold.io/best-practices-writing-questions Best Practices for Question Writing] <comments /> Category:Tut..."
- 14:5314:53, 6 May 2022 diff hist +114 How to Start Forecasting No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
- 14:0314:03, 6 May 2022 diff hist +19 Post-Mortem No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
- 14:0314:03, 6 May 2022 diff hist +19 Pre-Mortem No edit summary
- 14:0114:01, 6 May 2022 diff hist +19 Reciprocal Scoring No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
- 13:5913:59, 6 May 2022 diff hist +133 N Category:Stub Created page with "This category tracks pages that should exist, but have only had minimal content added. Please feel free to pick one and flesh it out!" Tag: Visual edit
- 13:5813:58, 6 May 2022 diff hist −136 Brier score Added stub category Tag: Visual edit
5 May 2022
- 17:0317:03, 5 May 2022 diff hist +923 How to Start Forecasting No edit summary
- 16:5216:52, 5 May 2022 diff hist +3,189 How to Start Forecasting Added typology of question types Tag: Visual edit
- 16:1816:18, 5 May 2022 diff hist +78 m Predicting at Near-Certainty →Absolute Predictions in Forecasting Tournaments Tag: Visual edit
3 May 2022
- 04:0604:06, 3 May 2022 diff hist +342 m Predicting at Near-Certainty No edit summary Tag: Visual edit
- 03:5703:57, 3 May 2022 diff hist +2,931 N Reciprocal Scoring Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog..."
2 May 2022
- 16:5216:52, 2 May 2022 diff hist +563 N Pre-Mortem Created page with "A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a Post-Mortem, it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup..."
- 16:3816:38, 2 May 2022 diff hist +36 m Post-Mortem No edit summary Tag: Visual edit
- 16:3616:36, 2 May 2022 diff hist +3,345 N How to Start Forecasting Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog..."
- 15:4715:47, 2 May 2022 diff hist +4,892 N Predicting at Near-Certainty Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog..."
- 14:0714:07, 2 May 2022 diff hist 0 Template:Prediction Platform No edit summary current
- 14:0314:03, 2 May 2022 diff hist +1 Template:Prediction Platform No edit summary
- 13:5913:59, 2 May 2022 diff hist +56 Get involved Added AABoyles to Contributors and Reviewers list Tag: Visual edit
- 13:5813:58, 2 May 2022 diff hist +13 N User:AABoyles Created page with "Hi! I'm Tony." current
7 February 2022
- 18:3518:35, 7 February 2022 diff hist +65 Foretold No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
- 18:3318:33, 7 February 2022 diff hist +47 N Category:Prediction Platform No edit summary current
- 18:3318:33, 7 February 2022 diff hist +768 N Special:Badtitle/NS106:Add a new Prediction Platform No edit summary current
- 18:3218:32, 7 February 2022 diff hist +203 N Template:Prediction Platform No edit summary
- 15:5815:58, 7 February 2022 diff hist +13 MediaWiki:Sidebar No edit summary
- 15:5815:58, 7 February 2022 diff hist −4 MediaWiki:Sidebar No edit summary
- 15:5815:58, 7 February 2022 diff hist +132 N MediaWiki:Sidebar Created page with " * navigation ** mainpage|mainpage-description ** recentchanges-url|recentchanges ** Contributing * SEARCH * TOOLBOX * LANGUAGES"
2 February 2022
- 17:5017:50, 2 February 2022 diff hist +52 N Category:Forecasting Tools Created page with "Wanted Pages: * Guesstimate * Google Sheets" current
- 17:0417:04, 2 February 2022 diff hist +163 N Foretold Created page with "Foretold is an [https://github.com/foretold-app/foretold open-source] prediction platform created and maintained by Ozzie Gooen. Category:Prediction platforms"
- 16:4716:47, 2 February 2022 diff hist +129 N Good Judgement Open Created page with "Good Judgement Open is a public forecasting platform owned and operated by Cultivate Labs. Category:Prediction platforms"
- 16:4616:46, 2 February 2022 diff hist −17 m Infer No edit summary
- 16:4516:45, 2 February 2022 diff hist +93 Infer Add Category Tag: Visual edit
- 16:4216:42, 2 February 2022 diff hist +19 N Foretell Redirected page to Infer current Tag: New redirect
- 16:4116:41, 2 February 2022 diff hist +388 N Infer Created page with "INFER is a prediction platform owned by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and operated by Cultivate Labs. As of 2022, it is funded by a grant from Open Philanthropy. It was formerly known as Foretell and owned by the [https://cset.georgetown.edu/ Center for Security and Emerging Technology] at Georgetown University."