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• 14:19, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Cognitive Biases (Created page with "A cognitive bias is a directional departure from a normative model of reasoning (i.e., how one should reason). This is contrasted with the concept of noise, which is a departure from normativity in many directions. The existence of cognitive biases is a central concern for making better forecasts. A cognitive bias is not ''necessarily'' a deviation from the correct answer (though it can be), but a deviation from normativity. For example, Bayes Theorem is a norma...")