Pre-Mortem: Difference between revisions
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A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a [[Post-Mortem]], it is a hypothetical |
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| ⚫ | exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup> to improve their reasoning for future forecasts. |
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=== See Also === |
=== See Also === |
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Latest revision as of 13:12, 10 June 2022
| This article is work in progess. The author is working on it and it is not yet ready for review. |
A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a Post-Mortem, it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters[citation needed] to improve their reasoning for future forecasts.