Pre-Mortem: Difference between revisions
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A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a [[Post-Mortem]], it is a hypothetical |
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⚫ | exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup> to improve their reasoning for future forecasts. |
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=== See Also === |
=== See Also === |
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[[Category:Concepts]] |