Pre-Mortem: Difference between revisions

38 bytes added ,  2 years ago
no edit summary
No edit summary
No edit summary
 
Line 1:
{{Banner|WIP}}
A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a [[Post-Mortem]], it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup> to improve their reasoning for future forecasts.
A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a [[Post-Mortem]], it is a hypothetical
A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a [[Post-Mortem]], it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup> to improve their reasoning for future forecasts.
 
=== See Also ===
Line 6 ⟶ 8:
 
[[Category:Stub]]
[[Category:Concepts]]