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(Added comparisons to prediction aggregators like Metaculus and added more examples of prediction markets.) |
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Prediction markets are markets where users can buy and sell contracts that pay out (typically $1) if the pre-determined event happens and nothing otherwise.
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=== Comparison to prediction aggregators ===
For a more complete comparison, see [[Comparison of prediction platforms and prediction markets]].
Prediction aggregators usually encourage everyone to submit their best guess by making it more likely to earn reputation points than lose them. Ideal prediction markets (no withdrawal/trading fees, high liquidity), in contrast,
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