All public logs

Combined display of all available logs of Forecasting Wiki. You can narrow down the view by selecting a log type, the username (case-sensitive), or the affected page (also case-sensitive).

16:50, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Noise (Created page with "Noise has at least two related but different meanings in the context of forecasting. The first type of noise is related to the issue of signal detection. The second type of noise is variability in judgment and is related to the idea of Cognitive Biases. The two types of noise are closely related. == Noise in signal detection == Making accurate forecasts requires that one is able to find valid evidence indicating what will be the true state of the world at the c...")
15:35, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Fallacy Fallacy (Created page with "The Fallacy Fallacy is the mistaken belief that because someone committed an error in reasoning, they must therefore be wrong. However, one can still have the correct answer even if their reasoning processes was in error.")
14:19, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Cognitive Biases (Created page with "A cognitive bias is a directional departure from a normative model of reasoning (i.e., how one should reason). This is contrasted with the concept of noise, which is a departure from normativity in many directions. The existence of cognitive biases is a central concern for making better forecasts. A cognitive bias is not ''necessarily'' a deviation from the correct answer (though it can be), but a deviation from normativity. For example, Bayes Theorem is a norma...")
23:22, 13 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page User:JTPeterson (Created page with "Hi, I am JTPeterson.")
23:14, 13 April 2022 User account JTPeterson talk contribs was created