Training for Forecasting
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This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself).
Cognitive Bias Reduction
Calibration Exercises
- OpenPhil's Calibrate Your Judgement
- Julia Galef's Scout Mindset Calibration Quiz (Adapted from Julia Galef)
- https://bayes-up.web.app/
- http://acritch.com/credence-game/
- http://confidence.success-equation.com/
- http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
- http://credencecalibration.com/
- https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
- https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
- http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
- http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
- https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
- https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
- https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.the_calibration_game
- https://outsidetheasylum.blog/probability-calibration/
(h/t this LessWrong Post)
Readings
- Superforeacsting: The Art and Science of Prediction [1]
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? [2]
- Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives [3]
External Links
- Metaculus Tutorials
- Good Judgement Open Training
- Hypermind "Great forecasting with collective intelligence" 4 part Masterclass
References
- ↑ Tetlock, Philip E.., Gardner, Dan. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. United States: Crown, 2015.
- ↑ Tetlock, Philip E.. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 2017.
- ↑ Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives. United States: Princeton University Press, 1996.
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