User contributions for AABoyles

9 May 2022

• 19:5119:51, 9 May 2022 diff hist +1,105‎ N Calibration ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> Calibration refers to the propensity of a forecaster's forecasts to occur at the approximate frequency of their prediction. For example, a forecaster who forecasts 10 events at 40% each and 4 of those events ultimately occur exhibits good calibration. If 3 or 5 of these events occur, the forecaster may still be exhibiting reasonable calibr..."
• 19:4819:48, 9 May 2022 diff hist +113‎ N File:Metaculus Calibration Plot.png ‎No edit summary current
• 19:2819:28, 9 May 2022 diff hist +696‎ N Right Side of Maybe ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> "Right Side of Maybe" is an expression for forecasts of greater than 50% certainty that do occur, or less than 50% certainty that do not occur. It implicitly forms the basis by which non-forecasters commonly judge the "accuracy" of forecasts (in contrast to forecasters, who will typically trust metrics like the brier score and assess w..." current
• 19:2119:21, 9 May 2022 diff hist +71‎ m Get involved ‎ →‎Creating an article Tag: Visual edit
• 19:1819:18, 9 May 2022 diff hist +340‎ m Get involved ‎ →‎How do I become a contributor? Tag: Visual edit
• 19:0319:03, 9 May 2022 diff hist −1‎ Template:Welcome ‎No edit summary current
• 19:0219:02, 9 May 2022 diff hist +177‎ N Template:Welcome ‎ Created page with "Hiya! Thanks for joining the Forecasting Wiki. If you haven't already, please check out the Get Involved and To dos pages. Otherwise, please plunge in and start writing!"
• 18:0318:03, 9 May 2022 diff hist +402‎ Keynesian Beauty Contest ‎No edit summary current
• 15:2115:21, 9 May 2022 diff hist −41‎ Template:Metaculus Embed ‎No edit summary current
• 15:1415:14, 9 May 2022 diff hist +106‎ N Template:Metaculus Embed ‎ Created page with "<iframe src=""https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/{{{id}}}/"" width=""550"" height=""260""></iframe>"
• 15:1015:10, 9 May 2022 diff hist +4,250‎ N Keynesian Beauty Contest ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> A '''Keynesian beauty contest''' is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes and introduced in Chapter 12 of his work, ''The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'' (1936), to explain price fluctuations in stock markets. It describes a beauty contest where judges are rewarded for selecting the ''most popular'' faces am..." Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 13:5513:55, 9 May 2022 diff hist +48‎ Reciprocal Scoring ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit
• 13:5313:53, 9 May 2022 diff hist +524‎ Training for Forecasting ‎ →‎Readings Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 13:4313:43, 9 May 2022 diff hist +8‎ How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎ →‎External Links Tag: Visual edit

6 May 2022

• 17:4917:49, 6 May 2022 diff hist +182‎ How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎ →‎External Links Tag: Visual edit
• 17:4717:47, 6 May 2022 diff hist +1,831‎ N Training for Forecasting ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> The content of your new article<ref>Reference here</ref> is great. This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself). == Cognitive Bias Reduction == == Calibration Exercises == * OpenPhil's [https://www.openphilanthropy.org/calibration..."
• 17:1817:18, 6 May 2022 diff hist +499‎ N How to Write Forecasting Questions ‎ Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> Writing good forecasting questions is tricky. == References == <references /> == External Links == * Metaculus: [https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/ Question writing and submission guidelines] * Foretold: [https://docs.foretold.io/best-practices-writing-questions Best Practices for Question Writing] <comments /> Category:Tut..."
• 14:5314:53, 6 May 2022 diff hist +114‎ How to Start Forecasting ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 14:0314:03, 6 May 2022 diff hist +19‎ Post-Mortem ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 14:0314:03, 6 May 2022 diff hist +19‎ Pre-Mortem ‎No edit summary
• 14:0114:01, 6 May 2022 diff hist +19‎ Reciprocal Scoring ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 13:5913:59, 6 May 2022 diff hist +133‎ N Category:Stub ‎ Created page with "This category tracks pages that should exist, but have only had minimal content added. Please feel free to pick one and flesh it out!" Tag: Visual edit
• 13:5813:58, 6 May 2022 diff hist −136‎ Brier score ‎ Added stub category Tag: Visual edit

5 May 2022

• 17:0317:03, 5 May 2022 diff hist +923‎ How to Start Forecasting ‎No edit summary
• 16:5216:52, 5 May 2022 diff hist +3,189‎ How to Start Forecasting ‎ Added typology of question types Tag: Visual edit
• 16:1816:18, 5 May 2022 diff hist +78‎ m Predicting at Near-Certainty ‎ →‎Absolute Predictions in Forecasting Tournaments Tag: Visual edit

3 May 2022

• 04:0604:06, 3 May 2022 diff hist +342‎ m Predicting at Near-Certainty ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit
• 03:5703:57, 3 May 2022 diff hist +2,931‎ N Reciprocal Scoring ‎ Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog..."

2 May 2022

• 16:5216:52, 2 May 2022 diff hist +563‎ N Pre-Mortem ‎ Created page with "A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a Post-Mortem, it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup..."
• 16:3816:38, 2 May 2022 diff hist +36‎ m Post-Mortem ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit
• 16:3616:36, 2 May 2022 diff hist +3,345‎ N How to Start Forecasting ‎ Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog..."
• 15:4715:47, 2 May 2022 diff hist +4,892‎ N Predicting at Near-Certainty ‎ Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog..."
• 14:0714:07, 2 May 2022 diff hist 0‎ Template:Prediction Platform ‎No edit summary current
• 14:0314:03, 2 May 2022 diff hist +1‎ Template:Prediction Platform ‎No edit summary
• 13:5913:59, 2 May 2022 diff hist +56‎ Get involved ‎ Added AABoyles to Contributors and Reviewers list Tag: Visual edit
• 13:5813:58, 2 May 2022 diff hist +13‎ N User:AABoyles ‎ Created page with "Hi! I'm Tony." current

7 February 2022

• 18:3518:35, 7 February 2022 diff hist +65‎ Foretold ‎No edit summary Tag: Visual edit: Switched
• 18:3318:33, 7 February 2022 diff hist +47‎ N Category:Prediction Platform ‎No edit summary current
• 18:3318:33, 7 February 2022 diff hist +768‎ N Special:Badtitle/NS106:Add a new Prediction Platform ‎No edit summary current
• 18:3218:32, 7 February 2022 diff hist +203‎ N Template:Prediction Platform ‎No edit summary
• 15:5815:58, 7 February 2022 diff hist +13‎ MediaWiki:Sidebar ‎No edit summary
• 15:5815:58, 7 February 2022 diff hist −4‎ MediaWiki:Sidebar ‎No edit summary
• 15:5815:58, 7 February 2022 diff hist +132‎ N MediaWiki:Sidebar ‎ Created page with " * navigation ** mainpage|mainpage-description ** recentchanges-url|recentchanges ** Contributing * SEARCH * TOOLBOX * LANGUAGES"

2 February 2022

• 17:5017:50, 2 February 2022 diff hist +52‎ N Category:Forecasting Tools ‎ Created page with "Wanted Pages: * Guesstimate * Google Sheets" current
• 17:0417:04, 2 February 2022 diff hist +163‎ N Foretold ‎ Created page with "Foretold is an [https://github.com/foretold-app/foretold open-source] prediction platform created and maintained by Ozzie Gooen. Category:Prediction platforms"
• 16:4716:47, 2 February 2022 diff hist +129‎ N Good Judgement Open ‎ Created page with "Good Judgement Open is a public forecasting platform owned and operated by Cultivate Labs. Category:Prediction platforms"
• 16:4616:46, 2 February 2022 diff hist −17‎ m Infer ‎No edit summary
• 16:4516:45, 2 February 2022 diff hist +93‎ Infer ‎ Add Category Tag: Visual edit
• 16:4216:42, 2 February 2022 diff hist +19‎ N Foretell ‎ Redirected page to Infer current Tag: New redirect
• 16:4116:41, 2 February 2022 diff hist +388‎ N Infer ‎ Created page with "INFER is a prediction platform owned by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and operated by Cultivate Labs. As of 2022, it is funded by a grant from Open Philanthropy. It was formerly known as Foretell and owned by the [https://cset.georgetown.edu/ Center for Security and Emerging Technology] at Georgetown University."