All public logs
Combined display of all available logs of Forecasting Wiki. You can narrow down the view by selecting a log type, the username (case-sensitive), or the affected page (also case-sensitive).
- 16:27, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "codeeditor, codemirror" for "forecastingwiki" (added syntax highlighting)
- 16:10, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "namespacepreload" for "forecastingwiki" (added namespace preload)
- 03:57, 3 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Reciprocal Scoring (Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog...")
- 16:52, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Pre-Mortem (Created page with "A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a Post-Mortem, it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup...")
- 16:36, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page How to Start Forecasting (Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog...")
- 15:47, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Predicting at Near-Certainty (Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog...")
- 13:58, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page User:AABoyles (Created page with "Hi! I'm Tony.")
- 21:44, 1 May 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:HankyUSA (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 21:44, 1 May 2022 User account HankyUSA talk contribs was created
- 18:07, 28 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:LuisEnriqueUrtubey (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 18:07, 28 April 2022 User account LuisEnriqueUrtubey talk contribs was created
- 18:06, 28 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:LuisEnrique (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 18:06, 28 April 2022 User account LuisEnrique talk contribs was created
- 15:18, 27 April 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "youtube" for "forecastingwiki" (added youtube)
- 10:33, 27 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:FutureRumFinder (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 10:33, 27 April 2022 User account FutureRumFinder talk contribs was created
- 22:55, 25 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:Briantedwards (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 22:55, 25 April 2022 User account Briantedwards talk contribs was created
- 16:54, 25 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs created page Wiki meetups (Created page with "This page serves as a documentation of past meetups as well as a place to collect plans for our next meetups. It serves as an addition to our To do list. == Plans and things to discuss for the next meetup == * Add NamespacePreload Extension if possible to create article banners * review existing articles, assign them to categories and add appropriate banners == Meetup 24.04.2022 == * People were in favour of Discord as our primary communication channel * We hav...") Tag: Visual edit
- 21:02, 24 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs created page MediaWiki:Welcomecreation (Created page with "Welcome to the Forecasting Wiki! Good to have you here as an editor! If you haven't done so yet, please join our Discord server: https://discord.gg/mkXMHEvXHr. If you have any questions about anything, you can talk to Nikos (find him on Discord (Nikos #5487) or on [https://twitter.com/nikosbosse Twitter]). If you like find out more about how to get involved and what's on our to do list.")
- 20:55, 24 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs created page User talk:Plex (Thank you!: new section) Tag: New topic
- 17:17, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:17, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:17, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:16, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:04, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "newusermessage, thanks" for "forecastingwiki" (requested)
- 16:15, 24 April 2022 Themausch talk contribs created page User:Themausch (Created page with "thumb") Tag: Visual edit
- 16:15, 24 April 2022 Themausch talk contribs created page File:Bayes' equation.png
- 16:15, 24 April 2022 Themausch talk contribs uploaded File:Bayes' equation.png
- 08:16, 24 April 2022 77.71.139.215 talk created page Talk:Cognitive Biases (Explanation of the normative model of reasoning: new section) Tag: New topic
- 22:05, 18 April 2022 RyanBeck talk contribs created page Forecasting Best Practices (Initial page creation with a few best practices added)
- 16:50, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Noise (Created page with "Noise has at least two related but different meanings in the context of forecasting. The first type of noise is related to the issue of signal detection. The second type of noise is variability in judgment and is related to the idea of Cognitive Biases. The two types of noise are closely related. == Noise in signal detection == Making accurate forecasts requires that one is able to find valid evidence indicating what will be the true state of the world at the c...")
- 15:35, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Fallacy Fallacy (Created page with "The Fallacy Fallacy is the mistaken belief that because someone committed an error in reasoning, they must therefore be wrong. However, one can still have the correct answer even if their reasoning processes was in error.")
- 14:19, 16 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page Cognitive Biases (Created page with "A cognitive bias is a directional departure from a normative model of reasoning (i.e., how one should reason). This is contrasted with the concept of noise, which is a departure from normativity in many directions. The existence of cognitive biases is a central concern for making better forecasts. A cognitive bias is not ''necessarily'' a deviation from the correct answer (though it can be), but a deviation from normativity. For example, Bayes Theorem is a norma...")
- 13:48, 15 April 2022 User account RyanBeck talk contribs was created
- 13:49, 14 April 2022 Chidethetrain talk contribs created page Polling (wrote about ideal assumptions you may look for in a poll and cited some estimates on accuracy) Tag: Visual edit
- 23:22, 13 April 2022 JTPeterson talk contribs created page User:JTPeterson (Created page with "Hi, I am JTPeterson.")
- 23:14, 13 April 2022 User account JTPeterson talk contribs was created
- 21:14, 13 April 2022 User account Drthomasho talk contribs was created
- 14:55, 13 April 2022 Chidethetrain talk contribs performed unknown action "comments/add" on Log score (Are you sure you mean prediction ''markets''? The only scoring rule they use that I'm aware of is your account balance at the end of the day. As for websites like Metaculus, the relevance of the particular scoring rule in use shouldn't really influence your forecasts as long as it is a proper (strictly proper?) scoring rule, right?)
- 12:04, 13 April 2022 Chidethetrain talk contribs created page Post-Mortem (created the page with an admittedly hyperbolic example)
- 10:38, 13 April 2022 User account Chidethetrain talk contribs was created
- 13:57, 12 April 2022 Nathanpmyoung talk contribs created page Introduction to Forecasting (Wrote this first attempt at an introduction to forecasting) Tag: Visual edit
- 15:30, 11 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs performed unknown action "comments/add" on Log score (Do you have specific thoughts on this? There are some points about log odds (which I would have to look up myself). Otherwise it is just one of many scoring rules you could use.)
- 15:18, 11 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "comments/add" on Log score (Big suggestion is to have a much stronger emphasis on the relevance of log score to forecasting. e.g. How does knowing this help you use prediction markets better? Why is this used by prediction markets?)
- 14:38, 11 April 2022 User account Bengoldhaber talk contribs was created
- 11:56, 11 April 2022 Nathanpmyoung talk contribs created page Reputation Markets vs Prediction Markets (Made the page) Tag: Visual edit
- 11:53, 11 April 2022 Nathanpmyoung talk contribs created page Writing good questions/markets (Made the page) Tag: Visual edit
- 11:45, 11 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs performed unknown action "comments/delete" on Log score
- 11:45, 11 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs performed unknown action "comments/delete" on Log score