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- 13:59, 12 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Citation needed (Created page with "You've found a claim that should be backed by empirical evidence or other formal research. If you're familiar with the research on this topic, please go back and replace the [''citation needed''] tag with a relevant reference! <comments /> Category:Meta")
- 13:54, 12 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Template:Citation needed (Created page with "<sup>[''citation needed'']</sup>")
- 09:59, 12 May 2022 Plex talk contribs created page Category:WIP (Created page with "Category:Pages that need work")
- 09:59, 12 May 2022 Plex talk contribs created page Category:Help wanted (Created page with "Category:Pages that need work")
- 20:07, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Category:Prediction markets (Created page with "{{#default_form:Add a new Prediction Platform}} Category:Prediction platforms")
- 19:51, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Calibration (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> Calibration refers to the propensity of a forecaster's forecasts to occur at the approximate frequency of their prediction. For example, a forecaster who forecasts 10 events at 40% each and 4 of those events ultimately occur exhibits good calibration. If 3 or 5 of these events occur, the forecaster may still be exhibiting reasonable calibr...")
- 19:48, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page File:Metaculus Calibration Plot.png
- 19:48, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs uploaded File:Metaculus Calibration Plot.png
- 19:28, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Right Side of Maybe (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> "Right Side of Maybe" is an expression for forecasts of greater than 50% certainty that do occur, or less than 50% certainty that do not occur. It implicitly forms the basis by which non-forecasters commonly judge the "accuracy" of forecasts (in contrast to forecasters, who will typically trust metrics like the brier score and assess w...")
- 19:02, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Template:Welcome (Created page with "Hiya! Thanks for joining the Forecasting Wiki. If you haven't already, please check out the Get Involved and To dos pages. Otherwise, please plunge in and start writing!")
- 15:14, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Template:Metaculus Embed (Created page with "<iframe src=""https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/{{{id}}}/"" width=""550"" height=""260""></iframe>")
- 15:10, 9 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Keynesian Beauty Contest (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> A '''Keynesian beauty contest''' is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes and introduced in Chapter 12 of his work, ''The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'' (1936), to explain price fluctuations in stock markets. It describes a beauty contest where judges are rewarded for selecting the ''most popular'' faces am...") Tag: Visual edit: Switched
- 17:47, 6 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Training for Forecasting (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> The content of your new article<ref>Reference here</ref> is great. This page rounds up links for training exercises that are believed to improve the component skills of Forecasting (other than just forecasting itself). == Cognitive Bias Reduction == == Calibration Exercises == * OpenPhil's [https://www.openphilanthropy.org/calibration...")
- 17:18, 6 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page How to Write Forecasting Questions (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> Writing good forecasting questions is tricky. == References == <references /> == External Links == * Metaculus: [https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/ Question writing and submission guidelines] * Foretold: [https://docs.foretold.io/best-practices-writing-questions Best Practices for Question Writing] <comments /> Category:Tut...")
- 13:59, 6 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Category:Stub (Created page with "This category tracks pages that should exist, but have only had minimal content added. Please feel free to pick one and flesh it out!") Tag: Visual edit
- 21:30, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs created page Sandbox test (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}}<!--- Change 'WIP' to 'Help wanted' then 'Review wanted' when you're at those stages, remove when review is passed---> The content of your new article<ref>Reference here</ref> is great. ==First heading== You can add LaTeX math by writing it in between the tags <nowiki><math></nowiki> and <nowiki></math></nowiki>: <math>\sigma</math> ==References== <references /> <comments /> [[Category:]]") Tag: Visual edit
- 17:53, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "wgNamespacePreloadDoExpansion" for "forecastingwiki" (don't expand templates)
- 16:51, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs deleted page Template:Banner2 (content was: "{{Banner|{{{1|}}}}}", and the only contributor was "Plex" (talk))
- 16:49, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs created page Template:Banner2 (Created page with "{{Banner|{{{1|}}}}}")
- 16:48, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs created page MediaWiki:Preload-namespace-0 (Created page with "{{Banner|WIP}} <!--- Can be set to Help_wanted / Review_wanted ---> The content of your new article<ref>Reference here</ref> is great. == First heading == You can add LaTeX math by writing it in between the tags <nowiki><math></nowiki> and <nowiki></math></nowiki>: <math>\sigma</math> == References == <references /> <comments /> [[Category:]]")
- 16:48, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs created page Template:Banner (Created page with "<includeonly>{| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | {{#switch:{{{1|}}} |WIP='''''This article is work in progess. The author is working on it and it is not yet ready for review.''''' |Help_wanted='''''The author would be happy about help on this article.''''' |Review_wanted='''''This article is currently under review.''''' }} |}</includeonly><noinclude> <pre> {{Banner |WIP /...")
- 16:43, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "pipeescape" for "forecastingwiki" (added pipe escapes)
- 16:27, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "codeeditor, codemirror" for "forecastingwiki" (added syntax highlighting)
- 16:10, 5 May 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "namespacepreload" for "forecastingwiki" (added namespace preload)
- 03:57, 3 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Reciprocal Scoring (Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog...")
- 16:52, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Pre-Mortem (Created page with "A pre-mortem (in forecasting) is an analysis of a forecast, typically before it has resolved. In contrast to a Post-Mortem, it is a hypothetical exercise. Forecasters will imagine that a question has resolved in the way that they predicted it wouldn't (i.e. they were on "the wrong side of maybe"). Given this imagined scenario, they then ask "Why?". Answering this question is a useful exercise. It is commonly used by professional forecasters<sup>[citation needed]</sup...")
- 16:36, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page How to Start Forecasting (Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog...")
- 15:47, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page Predicting at Near-Certainty (Created page with "<!-- ====================================== Article Banners ====================================== --> <!-- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> <!-- ====== Remove this block once the article is ready for the review to delete the banner ====== --> {| cellspacing="8" cellpadding="0" style="margin: 0em 0em 0.5em 0em; border: 1px solid #ecb300; background: #ffd244; width: 100%" | '''''This article is work in prog...")
- 13:58, 2 May 2022 AABoyles talk contribs created page User:AABoyles (Created page with "Hi! I'm Tony.")
- 21:44, 1 May 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:HankyUSA (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 21:44, 1 May 2022 User account HankyUSA talk contribs was created
- 18:07, 28 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:LuisEnriqueUrtubey (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 18:07, 28 April 2022 User account LuisEnriqueUrtubey talk contribs was created
- 18:06, 28 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:LuisEnrique (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 18:06, 28 April 2022 User account LuisEnrique talk contribs was created
- 15:18, 27 April 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "youtube" for "forecastingwiki" (added youtube)
- 10:33, 27 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:FutureRumFinder (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 10:33, 27 April 2022 User account FutureRumFinder talk contribs was created
- 22:55, 25 April 2022 New user message talk contribs created page User talk:Briantedwards (Adding welcome message to new user's talk page)
- 22:55, 25 April 2022 User account Briantedwards talk contribs was created
- 16:54, 25 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs created page Wiki meetups (Created page with "This page serves as a documentation of past meetups as well as a place to collect plans for our next meetups. It serves as an addition to our To do list. == Plans and things to discuss for the next meetup == * Add NamespacePreload Extension if possible to create article banners * review existing articles, assign them to categories and add appropriate banners == Meetup 24.04.2022 == * People were in favour of Discord as our primary communication channel * We hav...") Tag: Visual edit
- 21:02, 24 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs created page MediaWiki:Welcomecreation (Created page with "Welcome to the Forecasting Wiki! Good to have you here as an editor! If you haven't done so yet, please join our Discord server: https://discord.gg/mkXMHEvXHr. If you have any questions about anything, you can talk to Nikos (find him on Discord (Nikos #5487) or on [https://twitter.com/nikosbosse Twitter]). If you like find out more about how to get involved and what's on our to do list.")
- 20:55, 24 April 2022 Nikos talk contribs created page User talk:Plex (Thank you!: new section) Tag: New topic
- 17:17, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:17, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:17, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:16, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs performed unknown action "thanks/thank" on User:Nikos
- 17:04, 24 April 2022 Plex talk contribs changed the settings "newusermessage, thanks" for "forecastingwiki" (requested)
- 16:15, 24 April 2022 Themausch talk contribs created page User:Themausch (Created page with "thumb") Tag: Visual edit
- 16:15, 24 April 2022 Themausch talk contribs created page File:Bayes' equation.png